The remaining NASCAR Chase Grid drivers will face their last chance to advance to the championship race this weekend at Phoenix International Raceway in the Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500. Which drivers have the best chance?
To begin with let’s take a look at the track itself. Phoenix is a one-mile track that races a bit like a short track. It has only 10-11 degrees of banking through turns one and two and 8-9 degrees of banking through turns three and four.That gives very little assistance to the drivers as they try to get through the turns as quickly as possible. The front and backstretches have plenty of room to pass and race two, three and even four wide. However, with the low banking in the turns being side-by-side through those turns can result in a undesired result for the drivers. That means the cars will need to be well ballanced between power and handling and the drivers will need to be mistake-free for the 312 laps in the race.
The rest of the team will also need to be perfect as well. When the cars come in to get service a mistake-free pit stop will be essential to getting the driver back on the track in the same spot he or she was before the stop if not improve that spot. Any mistakes will cost the driver time and spots on the track that will likely be difficult to get back.
Now let’s look at where the eight remaining contenders on the Chase Grid are heading to the Phoenix race. Jeff Gordon won the Martinsville race to start this round in the Chase and therefore has an automatic advance to the championship race with a shot at the Sprint Cup trophy. Last week’s race in Texas was won by Jimmie Johnson who is no longer in contention for the championship so none of the other Chase drivers gained the automatic advance.
Three of the Chase Grid drivers are above the cutoff line for this week’s elimination race, but not by much. Kyle Busch is 11 points to the good, Kevin Harvick is nine points above the line and Martin Truex Jr. is six points above the cutoff line. Those totals are not even close to saying that they are safe to advance to the championship race after Phoenix.
Carl Edwards is the first driver below the cutoff line with a seven point deficit to make up. Carl could advance without winning if at least one of the drivers above the line does not have a very good day at Phoenix. Brad Keselowski is 19 points down which can also be made up without winning but that would be quite a bit more difficult without a couple of drivers having a really bad day in the Quicken Loans For Heroes 500.
Kurt Busch is down 35 points and would need a handful of drivers to have a disastrous race in order to advance without winning the race. Joey Logano is 63 points below the cutoff line and therefore can only advance if he wins the race at Phoenix.
How do these drivers stack up over their careers at Phoenix? Here are the key statistics for each one at the track.
#1 – Jeff Gordon
2 wins, 12 top fives, 23 top tens
Driver rating: 100.5 (3rd best)
#2 – Kyle Busch
1 win, 3 top fives, 12 top tens
Driver rating: 96.6 (6th best)
#3 – Kevin Harvick
7 wins, 10 top fives, 14 top tens
Driver rating : 108.3 (2nd best)
#4 – Martin Truex Jr.
0 wins, 1 top five, 7 top tens
Driver rating: 84.3 (16th best)
#5 – Carl Edwards
2 wins, 7 top fives, 12 top tens
Driver rating: 98.7 (4th best)
#6 – Brad Keselowski
0 wins, 4 top fives, 6 top tens
Driver rating: 94.0 (9th best)
#7 – Kurt Busch
1 win, 6 top fives, 14 top tens
Driver rating: 98.6 (5th best)
#8 – Joey Logano
0 wins, 2 top fives, 7 top tens
Driver rating: 14th best
When you look at the stats above you have to think that Kevin Harvick is a favorite to win the race at Phoenix this weekend. Add the fact that in his seven wins (most all-time at the track) five have come in the past six races the Sprint Cup series has held there and he has won the last four races in a row at Phoenix. That should make him a HEAVY favorite for the win. However, I will say that could also mean that another driver is “due” to win at the track.
Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Kurt Busch all have Phoenix wins and good numbers at the track and could be that driver that wins instead of Kevin. However, I think I would keep my eye on a spoiler for the win this week.
Jimmie Johnson played spoiler last week and could roll the momentum of that win forward to win again this week at Phoenix. He has won four times at the track in the Sprint Cup series. Jimmie also has the highest driver rating at the track at 112.8 with 14 top fives and 18 top tens. Jimmie should be a big favorite to play spoiler to the remaining Chase Grid drivers for a second week in a row.
NASCAR’s playoffs has not been lacing in drama this year and I highly expect that there could be more drama to unfold this week as the pressure of advancing to the championship race will be at the highest for the seven Chase Grid drivers not assured a chance at the championship yet. Mix in the other 36 drivers that simply want to win the race and the probability of drama rises even higher.
We will see how it all unfolds this Sunday, November 15th starting at 1:30 pm central time in the Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.
By: Buck Stevens
