The final race of the Contender Round in NASCAR’s playoffs is this week at Talladega Superspeedway and 11 of the Chase drivers need to perform in the CampingWorld.com 500 to advance.
Joey Logano has won the first two races in this round at Charlotte and Kansas. He gets an automatic advance to the next round on the Chase Grid by winning at least one race in the Contender Round. That means the other 11 drivers in contention for the championship will need to finish the Talladega race with enough points to be in the top eight. After the CampingWorld.com 500 the bottom four drivers will be eliminated.
While many may think that those drivers near the top of the list in points have it pretty easy to advance, those people would be wrong. When it comes to NASCAR Sprint Cup racing at Talladega anything can happen, good and bad.
The 2.66-mile track has 33 degrees of banking through the turns and allows for very high speeds. The best speeds are achieved when the cars are in a pack and when there are at least two cars bumper to bumper racing around the super speedway. The problem with that is if a single car makes a mistake it can cost another driver a good day. When the cars are all together in a huge pack, a mistake by a single driver can turn into the “big one” which can cost many drivers a good day. That is the worry of every driver and the fear of all of the 11 Chase Grid drivers not locked in the next round of the Chase.
In order to have a good day at Talladega, a driver will need to avoid making mistakes, avoid mistakes made by others and avoid being caught up in the “big one.”
Let’s take a look at how the 12 Chase Grid drivers have performed at Talladega over their NASCAR Sprint Cup careers.
#1 – Joey Logano
0 wins, 2 top fives, 4 top tens
Driver rating 79.3 (14th best)
#2 – Denny Hamlin
1 win, 4 top fives, 7 top tens
Driver rating 83.5 (7th best)
#3 – Kurt Busch
0 wins, 6 top fives, 14 top tens
Driver rating 88.3 (5th best)
#4 – Carl Edwards
0 wins, 2 top fives, 5 top tens
Driver rating 66.4 (32nd best)
#5 – Kevin Harvick
1 win, 6 top fives, 13 top tens
Driver rating 79.9 (11th best)
#6 – Jeff Gordon
6 wins, 15 top fives, 19 top tens
Driver rating 79.2 (15th best)
#7 – Brad Keselowski
3 wins, 4 top fives, 7 top tens
Driver rating 83.2 (8th best)
#8 – Martin Truex Jr.
0 wins, 2 top fives, 7 top tens
Driver rating 79.6 (12th best)
#9 – Kyle Busch
1 win, 4 top fives. 5 top tens
Driver Rating 78.6 (17th best)
#10 – Ryan Newman
0 wins, 5 top fives, 11 top tens
Driver rating 68.1 (31st best)
#11 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
6 wins, 11 top fives, 15 top tens
Driver rating 92.8 (series best)
#12 – Matt Kenseth
1 win, 6 top fives, 10 top tens
Driver rating 89.2 (2nd best)
Now that you have that information, let me give you the information for where the Chase drivers need to finish the race in order to advance to the next round. Seven of those drivers can control their won Chase destiny without a win.
Denny Hamlin will need to finish in 14th place without leading a lap, 15th place with a bonus point for leading a lap or 16th place with two bonus points for leading the most laps to advance regardless of where the other Chase Grid drivers finish.
Kurt Busch will need to finish in 8th place without leading a lap, 9th place with a bonus point for leading a lap or 10th place with two bonus points for leading the most laps to advance regardless of where the other Chase Grid drivers finish.
Carl Edwards will need to finish in 7th place without leading a lap, 8th place with a bonus point for leading a lap or 9th place with two bonus points for leading the most laps to advance regardless of where the other Chase Grid drivers finish.
Kevin Harvick will need to finish in 3rd place without leading a lap or 4th place with a bonus point for leading a lap to advance regardless of where the other Chase Grid drivers finish.
Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski will need to finish in 2nd place without leading a lap, 3rd place with a bonus point for leading a lap or 4th place with two bonus points for leading the most laps to advance regardless of where the other Chase Grid drivers finish.
Martin Truex Jr. will need to finish in 2nd place without leading a lap or 3rd place with two bonus points for leading the most laps to advance regardless of where the other Chase Grid drivers finish.
Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth can only control their own Chase destiny without help from the other contending drivers by winning the race.
I will say that since Dale Jr. is tied for the most wins at the track by active drivers with Jeff Gordon at six wins each (Dale Earnhardt Sr. is the all-time winner with 10 Talladega victories), and Dale Jr. has the best driver rating among active drivers he will be able to head to race with some confidence. In fact, Dale Jr. won the first Sprint Cup race at Talladega this year back in May.
Matt Kenseth will also have some confidence to use at Talladega since he has won at the track and has the second highest driver rating among the active Sprint Cup drivers.
While these two NEED the win to advance and should be considered favorites heading to the race, this is Talladega and NOTHING is a sure thing at “Dega” other than anything can and usually does happen.
Which Chase drivers will advance and which will be eliminated after the CampingWorld.com 500? We will all find out when the checkered flag waives after 188 laps (500 miles) at Talladega Superspeedway starting at 1:30pm central time Sunday, October 25th.
By: Buck Stevens
