The NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup moves to Texas Motor Speedway this week where seven Chase Grid drivers hope to win big in the AAA Texas 500 to earn a spot in the final four.
The Round of Eight started last weekend with Jimmie Johnson scoring the win at Martinsville. That automatically advances him to the Championship Race at Homestead-Miami Speedway November 20th as one of the final four contenders with a chance to win the championship. The remaining seven Chase Grid contenders will have to win one of the next two races or have a high enough points total after this round to race for the championship. At least one driver will advance based on points. However, if Jimmie or non-contenders win this week and next as many as three could get to the Championship Race as a contender based on points.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though. The path to the Championship Race this week goes around the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway. The track is wide and fast. The teams will need to dial in the power and handling for the drivers to have a chance to run well and be in position to win at the end of the 334-lap race. While drivers can make a green-flag pit stop without losing a lap at Texas, any mistakes in the pits by the team or driver will lose positions on the track and could lose a lap depending on how severe the mistake is.
Let’s take a look at the 10 drivers with the best rating at Texas stack-up heading into the AAA Texas 500. I have removed Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. from the ninth and tenth places since neither will actually be racing this weekend and moved the 11th and 12th place drivers up.
Top 10 Active Driver Ratings at Texas
*Jimmie Johnson – 107.8
*Matt Kenseth – 104.9
*Kyle Busch – 102.9
*Carl Edwards – 97.6
Greg Biffle – 96.4
Chase Elliott – 94.9
Tony Stewart – 94.3
Martin Truex Jr. – 91.7
*Denny Hamlin – 90.5
*Kevin Harvick – 89.1
(* = Chase Contender)
(NOTE: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2016 races {23 total} among active drivers at Texas Motor Speedway)
Jimmie won last week and is the all-time win leader at Texas Motor Speedway heading to this week’s race. In fact, Jimmie has won five of the last eight Sprint Cup races including the last four fall races at the track. He could add pressure to the remaining seven Chase Grid drivers by scoring back-to-back Round of Eight wins.
Carl Edwards had a terrible race last week finishing in the 36th position. He could find himself in a “must win” situation to advance to the Championship Race. This week’s race is a good chance for him to remove the pressure from himself since Carl has won three times in his Sprint Cup career at Texas Motor Speedway.
Non-contenders Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle have both won two races at Texas and could play spoiler to the remaining Chase Grid drivers this weekend.
The Chase contenders that have a pair of wins at Texas are Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and the winner of the 2016 spring night race at Texas and defending Sprint Cup Champion Kyle Busch. These drivers will push hard to earn a spot in the final four this weekend.
Chase Grid drivers Joey Logano and Kurt Busch will race hard to add to their singe Texas win and advance in The Chase. However, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman both have a win at the track will be trying to keep any of the contenders out of Victory Lane at Texas by winning their second race at the track.
Will a Chase Grid Driver earn a spot in the final four this weekend? Will Jimmie Johnson continue his fall Texas race domination? Will a spoiler find a way to win?
All of these questions will be answered following the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway when the green flag waives Sunday, November 6th starting at 1 PM central time (2 PM eastern time).
By: Buck Stevens
