This weekend the Challenger Round of the NASCAR Chase concludes at Dover International Speedway. The Chase Grid drivers will battle to advance in the AAA 400.

Dover International Speedway has earned the nickname of the “Monster Mile” over the years. When NASCAR goes to Dover the drivers are not only racing each other, but also the track. If a driver takes the track too lightly the Monster Mile will make that driver pay with a wreck race car.

Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin will simply be racing to win since they have both scored a win in this round of NASCAR’s playoffs and gained an automatic advance to the next round as a result. For the other 14 Chase Grid drivers the pressure will be a little more intense.

Following the AAA 400, the four lowest Chase drivers in point totals without a win in the first three races of the 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup will be eliminated from championship contention. Some of those drivers will feel that pressure more than others.

Kyle Busch, Paul Menard, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer are currently below the cutoff line for the next round of the Chase. Kyle and Paul are just a point below that elimination line. Kevin is 23 points below it and Clint is deep below the line with a 39 point deficit.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is only a point above the cutoff line with Jamie McMurray two points to the good. These two may be above the elimination line currently, but they could find themselves below it easily after Dover.

Jeff Gordon will also not be feeling safe from elimination being just 12 points above elimination heading into the AAA 400. Carl Edwards is the highest driver on the Chase Grid not guaranteed a spot in the next round by having won a race in the first two Chase races and is only 33 points above the cutoff line. That means it is possible that he could be eliminated if he has a disastrous day on the “Monster Mile.”

As you can see, other than the previously mentioned two drivers with a win in the Challenger Round, no other Chase Grid driver has a lock on a spot in the Contender Round of the Chase. Let’s look at how the 16 Chase Grid drivers rate over their Sprint Cup careers at Dover International Speedway.

#1 – Matt Kenseth
Driver rating 107.5 (2^nd best)
2 wins, 11 top fives, 17 top tens

#2 – Denny Hamlin
Driver rating 85.2 (14^th best)
0 wins, 3 top fives, 6 top tens

#3 – Carl Edwards
Driver rating 98.4 (4^th best)
1 win, 8 top fives, 12 top tens

#4 – Joey Logano
Driver rating 83.6 (15^th best)
0 wins, 3 top fives, 8 top tens

#5 – Jimmie Johnson
Driver rating 122.3 (series best)
10 wins, 15 top fives, 20 top tens

#6 – Ryan Newman
Driver rating 87.6 (13^th best)
3 wins, 6 top fives, 13 top tens

#7 – Kurt Busch
Driver rating 90.6 (11^th best)
1 win, 6 top fives, 8 top tens

#8 – Brad Keselowski
Driver rating 91.1 (10^th best)
1 win, 4 top fives, 4 top tens

#9 – Martin Truex Jr.
Driver rating 91.3 (9^th best)
1 win, 1 top five, 9 top tens

#10 – Jeff Gordon
Driver rating 96.1 (7^th best)
5 wins, 18 top fives, 26 top tens

#11 – Jamie McMurray
Driver rating 78.6 (18^th best)
0 wins, 1 top five, 6 top tens

#12 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Driver rating 81.7 (16^th best)
1 win, 6 top fives, 11 top tens

#13 – Kyle Busch
Driver rating 105.0 (3^rd best)
2 wins, 9 top fives, 13 top tens

#14 – Paul Menard
Driver rating 68.8 (23^rd best)
0 wins, 0 top fives, 3 top tens

#15 – Kevin Harvick
Driver rating 88.5 (12^th best)
0 wins, 4 top fives, 13 top tens

#16 – Clint Bowyer
Driver rating 92.7 (8^th best)
0 wins, 2 top fives, 12 top tens

Jimmie Johnson should be an obvious favorite to win at Dover since he holds the most all-time wins at the track with 10 and is the active driver with the highest driver rating as well. Jimmie won the spring race at Dover earlier this year. Unless he has something happen to take him out of the race completely, I can’t see Jimmie doing poorly enough to be eliminated from the Chase even if he doesn’t win.

Last week’s winner at New Hampshire Matt Kenseth should also be considered a favorite to win. He has the second best driver rating and could roll the momentum of last week’s win into another trip to Victory Lane at Dover.

Kyle Busch is part of the recent Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) domination of the Sprint Cup series. He along with JGR teammates Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin have won 11 of the last 13 Sprint Cup races. Kyle has the third best driver rating and has won at Dover twice in a Sprint Cup car. While he may not HAVE to win to advance in the Chase, capturing the win would completely eliminate the worry of where any other driver finishes affecting the move to the next round for Kyle.

Jeff Gordon took the win in this race in the 2014 Chase. While he doesn’t necessarily need to win to advance this year, he hasn’t scored a victory yet in his final full-time Sprint Cup season. If he is going to make a legitimate run at one last championship he could use the momentum that winning the AAA 400 would bring.

The elimination race this weekend will likely have tempers and fenders being bent, NASCAR races on the Monster Mile usually do. When you dd the pressure of the Chase to the mix and I think it’s just a matter of time and who, not when and if.

It should all make for a very exciting race for fans to watch. I know I’ll be tuned in to see what happens in the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway Sunday, October 4th starting at 1:30 pm central time.

By: Buck Stevens