The NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to Kentucky Speedway to race under the lights Saturday Night (7/11) in the Quaker State 400 Presented by Advance Auto Parts.
There are currently six spots on the Chase Grid not filled by a driver with at least one win for the 2015 NASCAR season. Counting this week’s race at Kentucky Speedway there are nine races left before the Chase begins. Kyle Busch has a win, but needs to get into the top 30 in the point standings to become Chase eligible and have his win move him onto the Chase Grid.
Kentucky Speedway is a 1.5-mile track that most would not consider a wild card track. However, look at the situation that the drivers and teams will be dealing with Saturday night.
To begin with there have only been four Sprint Cup races ever held at Kentucky Speedway. That means the teams do not have a huge notebook to glean car set-up and race strategy from for the Quaker State 400.
NASCAR announced a new aero package to be used at Kentucky Speedway that will essentially drop around 1,000 pounds of down force that the cars will generate during the race. The new aero package was announced AFTER Goodyear conducted tire testing at the track and there was not enough time to do new testing and produce the amount of new tires for the teams based on the results of a new test.
I look at that as a scenario that could put the mega teams and the small teams in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series on a more even playing field for the race. That is why I think that the Quaker State 400 could be a wild card race for the Chase.
Who are the drivers that have the highest driver rating in the limited Sprint Cup racing that has been held at Kentucky Speedway? Here are the top ten at the track.
#1 – Kyle Busch – 124.3 driver rating with 1 win
#2 – Jimmie Johnson – 116.6 driver rating with 0 wins
#3 – Brad Keselowski – 116.1 driver rating with 2 wins
#4 – Matt Kenseth – 107.2 driver rating with 1 win
#5 – Kasey Kahne – 98.9 driver rating with 0 wins
#6 – Jeff Gordon – 95.4 driver rating with 0 wins
#7 – Kevin Harvick – 95.2 driver rating with 0 wins
#8 – Joey Logano – 94.7 driver rating with 0 wins
#9 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 90.7 driver rating with 0 wins
#10 – Ryan Newman – 90.2 driver rating with 0 wins
Again, with so little racing history at the track is it a little hard to say that any driver heads into the race as a favorite. However, a nod has to be given to Brad Keselowski as the only driver to have multiple wins at Kentucky Speedway. He is also the defending 2014 winner of the Quaker State 400.
Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth also deserve at least extra consideration as the only other drivers to have won at the track.
When it comes to mile-and-a-half tracks both Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have been the golden boys in the past year or so. So, before even a single lap of practice is run, they also have to be considered contenders in the race as the teams figure out the combination of aero package and tire grip for the race.
Coming off his second win of the year at Daytona, Dale Earnhardt Jr. could roll that momentum forward to score back-to-back wins this Saturday night.
There have been three different manufactures celebrating a Sprint Cup win at Kentucky Speedway, Toyota (2 wins), Dodge (1 win) and Ford (1 win). That little fact plays a role in my dark horse pick for this weekend’s race. I believe that it will be a Chevrolet that wins this weekend. Just call it a gut feeling.
You can add the previous gut feeling to another one as I pick Kyle Larson as my dark horse for the Quaker State 400. The young driver has already shown that he has the skills as a driver and I am a little surprised he has not already scored his first Sprint Cup win as close as he has come in multiple races. My gut tells me that Saturday night that first trip to Victory Lane could happen for Kyle Larson.
With all the unknowns with the limited notebook from Kentucky Speedway and the new aero package, the teams will need to be mistake free in the pits and the crew chief will need to figure out the adjustments quickly to give the driver a car that can contend for the win.
This weekend’s Quaker State 400 could turn out to be one of the most exciting races of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season. The story will begin to unfold from Kentucky Speedway at 6:30pm central time this Saturday, July 11th.
By: Buck Stevens
