The NASCAR Sprint Cup series is heading to Fontana, California for the Auto Club 400 this Sunday. The question is which driver will go from California dreamin’ to California winnin’?
The two-mile Auto Club Speedway allows for fast speeds. The wide racing surface will allow the drivers to easily get three and four-wide. We have even seen five and six-wide racing in the past at the track.
The problem with that many cars running that fast side-by-side is that one mistake by one driver and multiple cars can be sent spinning. To avoid being awakened early from that California dream, the teams will need to have the cars dialed in for a balance between speed and handling. The drivers will need to avoid making mistakes or over driving their car so they are not rudely awakened from their vision of reaching Victory Lane.
Let’s look at the top ten names on the list of driver rating for Auto Club Speedway.
Jimmie Johnson – 119.6 – 5wins
Kyle Busch – 109.2 – 3 wins
Matt Kenseth – 105.5 – 3wins
Tony Stewart – 102.0 – 2 wins
Carl Edwards – 98.5 – 1 win
Jeff Gordon – 96.2 – 3 wins
Kevin Harvick – 95.8 – 1 win
Greg Biffle – 95.5 – 1 win
Clint Bowyer – 92.9 – 0 wins
Kasey Kahne – 91.4 – 1 win
California native Jimmie Johnson has the most wins at the track with six during his storied Sprint Cup career as well as having the highest driver rating. That means I have to put him on the list of good bets for the win this weekend.
Matt Kenseth has also racked up some great stats at Auto Club Speedway over the years. He will also likely be a factor in the race with a chance to win at the end.
However, my gut tells me that the driver that everybody should be paying attention to is California native Jeff Gordon. While Jeff is in the second half of the top ten in driver ratings at Auto Club Speedway and only has half as many wins as Jimmie, I feel like this will be Jeff’s weekend to get his first win of his final full-time Sprint Cup season. Jeff will be in his home state and he has been strong so far this year. He has just found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The other driver I will be watching as a statistical “long shot” is Kyle Larson. Larson is still looking for his first Sprint Cup victory. However, last year in this race he looked very strong all day. In fact, Larson challenged Kyle Busch in the final laps and took a close second place to Busch who won the race. Keep an eye on the #42 and see if he can improve last year’s finish by a spot and get his first Sprint Cup win.
With the high speeds and plenty of racing room this week’s race will likely be another fun one to watch. The driver that does ultimately make their California dream come true will be the one that avoids mistakes (both making and being caught up in other people’s mistakes), has a good handling car and is willing to make a move to win the race with the power under the hood to execute that move.
We will all see which dream unfolds Sunday, March 22nd starting at 2:30pm central time when the Auto Club 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup race starts at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California.
By: Buck Stevens
